Posted on 15th Sep 2024 11:52:47 PM Agriculture
Statement of the problem
Climate change is not a new phenomenon in the present world. Climate is gradually changing from the beginning time of the earth’s creation. Four climate changes have come in this universe. Dying out of the big dinosaurs is the main causes of climate change.
Agricultural productivity is very much related with the climatic variables like temperature, rainfall, evaporation, evapotraspiration, infiltration, water vapor, clouds, direction of wind, location of high and low pressures etc. Rice potentiality of Bangladesh specially depends upon monsoon climate (Singh. J. 1995).
A lot of works has been conducted about climate change as well as agriculture of Bangladesh. Islam and Neelim (2010) in their work ‘Climate change trends and effects on Bangladesh show that the local scale climate change and its effects on cropping patterns. ‘Characterizing Long-term Changes of Bangladesh climate in context of agriculture and Irrigation (2008) a climatic research has presented by Ministry of food and disaster management. This study has shown the long-term change and term trends of climatic variables.
Above literatures review shows that a little person works on rice potentiality with climatic variability in the context of Bangladesh. So, it may be a contemporary work in the field of rice production in Bangladesh. I would like to contribute new knowledge in climate science as well as rice potentiality of Bangladesh.
Broad Objectives
The core objective of the proposed study is to explore potentiality of rice production in Bangladesh, i.e., present rice production trends and future trends as well as future challenge in the context of two climatic strong variable rainfall and temperature.
Specific Objectives
* Analyse of trends of rainfall temperature and its relation with rice production in Bangladesh.
* To examine the anomalies of rainfall and temperature
* To portray the potentiality of rice production with the seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature.
* To explore the future challenge of rice production.
Data and Methods
The data will be used in this research pertaining to rainfall in millimeter (mm). There are 42 meteorological stations in Bangladesh (BMD 2010). All meteorological stations of the country did not start functioning at the same time. There are some stations having maximum 70 years data while the recent meteorological station only 20-30 yeas data.
Considering the data coverage only 11 stations from 7 climatic sub-regions would be selected.
Data in the selected stations would be collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). There are some missing data. These missing values will be interpolated by SPSS and the interpolated data has been used for the analysis of the study. To analyse these data simple statistical procedures have been like mean, mode, median, standard deviation, coefficient of variation. Attempt would be made to incorporate one or more climatic station in each climatic sub-zone so that rainfall trends, patterns and variability in Bangladesh can be investigated. Due to uneven distribution pattern of rainfall in Bangladesh during different seasons of the year attempt would be further made to analyse the data on the basis of seasonal variability. Data separately used for the Monsoon season (June to mid October), Post monsoon season (November to February) and Pre-monsoon season (April to May) to find out the trend, anomaly, average mean region wise, average mean of Bangladesh.
For analyzing the data the following software have been used-
MS Excel
SPSS
ARCVIEW 3. 9
Limitations
Any research is seldom free from limitations and so is in the case of this study too. The limitations are-
a) There are some missing data in every station.
b) All the meteorological stations of the country did not start functioning at the same time. So data coverage is a limitation.
c) Like climate, it’s so much difficult to accomplish climatic study in a short time.
d) Others relevant data with climate might be needed but the lack their availability those are not possible to link with this study.
Rationale of the Study
Various environmental organization likes IPCC, UNFCCC produced estimates, results and model predictions on climate change. These organization have given action plan on climate change, suggestions on how to mitigate the problems produced by climate change. These efforts/ predictions are focusing global scale change but have deep influence on local levels actions. IPCC clearly states that their results are produced at global scale (IPCC, 2007; Houghton 2004) aiming at giving an indication on overall change in the climatic variables. For this IPCC has gathered data from different weather stations of the world based on some criteria for weather stations. Very few stations of Bangladesh qualify the criteria. It means that Bangladesh does not represent in the global climatic model. So it can be said, IPCC model results is suitable for global scale but may not have similar in facts at local scale.
On the other hand, Bangladesh is vulnerable to climatic hazard for its geographical characteristics. Huge water mass in south of the country has increased its magnitude of disaster. Every year Bangladesh is affected by atmospheric calamity. For this Bangladesh is a suitable field for work with climatic variables. Flood, cyclone, tornado, drought and heavy rainfall during monsoon season have added significance of climate study in Bangladesh. A handsome number of researches worked on temperature of Bangladesh. On the other hand little work has been done about rainfall of Bangladesh. So the study of rainfall trends and pattern of Bangladesh is a need of time. In the above context this study is an attempt to analyse the trends and patterns of rainfall of Bangladesh.
Chapter outline
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Prelude
1.2 Science of Climate
1.3 Green House Effect
1.4 Definition of Climate Change by IPCC
1.5 IPCC Projection for 21st Century
1.6 Regional Scenario of rainfall and Temperature for South Asia
1.7 Modeling of Climate Change in Bangladesh
1.8 Definition of Agriculture
1.9 Agricultural Potentiality and Climate Change
1.10 Statement of the Problem
1.11 Aim and Objective of the Study
1.12 Scope of the Study
1.13 Limitation
1.14 Data and Methods
1.15 Organization of the Work
Chapter Two: Literature Review
2.1 Books
2.2 Journals
2.3 Manuscript
Chapter Three: Climate of Bangladesh
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Climate Condition
3.1.1 Temperature
3.2.2 Rainfall
3.2.3 Humidity
3.2.4 Clouds
3.2.5 Atmospheric Pressure
3.2.6 Wind direction
3.6.7 Natural Calamities
3.3 Climatic seasons
3.4 Climatic Zones
3.5 Factors Affecting Bangladesh Climates
3.6 Conclusion
Chapter Four: Trends of Temperature and rainfall
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Trends of Annual Rainfall and Temperature in Bangladesh.
4.3 Region Wise Trends of Rainfall and Temperature
4.4 Seasonal Trends of Rainfall and Temperature in Bangladesh
4.5 Analysis of Anomalies of Temperature and Rainfall in Bangladesh
Chapter Five: Climatic variability
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Definition of Variability
5.3 Seasonal Variability of Rainfall and Temperature
5.4 Seasonal Variability of Rainfall and Temperature during Monsoon
5.5 Seasonal Variability of Rainfall and Temperature during Pre-monsoon
5.6 Seasonal Variability of Rainfall and Temperature during post Monsoon
Chapter Six: Rice Production Potentiality of Bangladesh
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Definition of Agricultural Potentiality
6.3 Soil potentiality of Rice in Bangladesh
6.4 Physiographic Potentiality in Bangladesh
6.5 Climatic Potentiality in Bangladesh
6.6 Drainage Pattern Potentiality in Bangladesh
6.7 Cultural Potentiality of Rice Production in Bangladesh
Chapter Seven: Assessment of Drought
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Definition of drought
7.3 Drought and agricultural production
7.4 Desertification process in Bangladesh
7.5 Desertification and rice production trends
7.6 Conclusion
Chapter Eight: Conclusion and Implications
Bibliography
Adaptive Crop Agriculture including Innovative Farming Practices in the Coastal Zones of Bangladesh, 2007. Final Report, CEGIS, DoE, CDMP, DFID& UNDP for Climate Change Cell, CDMP, MoFDM. Dhaka.
Ahmed R., Abhaoa O Jalabayu Vijnan (Meteorology and Climatology, written in Bangla), Prof MS Alam, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh, 1997.
Alam M.S. and Samand Q.A. (...) Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Bangladesh.
Arctic Climatology and Meteorology. Climate change. Retrieved on 2008-05-19.
Barry R.G. & Chorley R.J., Atmosphere, Weather and Climate, Routledge, London and New York, 1998.
Basak, J.K., M.A. Ali and M.N. Islam, 2009. Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Boro Rice Production in Bangladesh using Dassat Model in Rahman, M.H. and M.J.B.. Alam (eds) Facing the Challenge of Climate Change: Issues, Impacts and Adaptation Strategy. ITN-BUET, Dhaka, pp 103-114.
Banglapedia (CD Edition Feb 2008), Asiatic Society of Bangladesh.
Basak, J. K. (2010). Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Bangladesh: Results from a Model. Unnayan Onneshan-The Innovators, Dhaka.
Bangladesh Meteorological Department; 2003.
Agricultural, Agriculture, IPCC, UNFCCC, BMD, Climatic, Variability, Potentiality, Rice, Production, Research, Methodology, Institute, Bangladesh, Studies, IBS
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